Thursday, March 8, 2012

The Great Paradigm Shift

Something in the air smells of change. Understand that when I use this word I am not reciting a partisan one-liner but rather I mean the word in its purest sense: a shift in the form, nature, and essence of “something” towards “something” else unlike what it was or what it would be if left alone. Technical terminology would refer to this by the Kuhnian term “paradigm shift”, which describes the necessity for systems to undergo a sequence of incremental knowledge-accretion of new information that supports an initial hypothesis; this is done until anomalies start propping up and eventually a revolution occurs which necessitates a shift in the paradigm. Thomas Kuhn, a historian and philosopher of science, created his model to describe the life-cycles of scientific paradigms. Just as Newton shifted the paradigm set by his predecessors, so did Einstein’s theories revolutionize the paradigm before him—so on and so forth. Within every field of science, within the context of every paradigm there emerges a cycle, regardless of its nature for such is the essence of the discipline.

Let me walk you through the process: a hypothesis is generated that supposes a certain paradigm exists. Experimentation is procedurally performed on a small, controlled, yet incremental manner, all of which adds to the knowledge base of the paradigm in question—the model is validated by data with results that confirm the underlying hypothesis of the framework, what is referred to as “normal science”. With time however, anomalies start emerging, rivaling theories become more widespread due to a loss of confidence in the original model, and as a result the paradigm weakens. Consequentially, a revolution eventually needs to take place due to an incompatibility of mindsets and a polarization of opinions, all of which culminates in a shift in the paradigm. Within this new point of view, inconsistencies from the prior model are removed, and a reshuffling of the language and the terminology is performed in order for the new framework to operate in tandem with the new reality. Once the errors and anomalies are sorted however, the new paradigm starts anew with the accumulation of “normal science”, yet at a higher level than the one previously established by the old paradigm.

Kuhn was in essence describing a model that would not only apply to the hard sciences, but could also be conceptualized and applied to the arts, the humanities, the social sciences, and every other discipline which human beings set their hearts and minds to. Kuhn’s “formula” is merely a way to describe a tale as old as time, one where fathers must cede the world to their sons, where mothers must pass the mantle onto their daughters, where time must pass, change must happen, and eras succumb to shift. Titans yielded the way to the Olympians, and the Gods on the Mount relinquished their power to the human realm. As true as it is allegory, this model holds for the processes behind everything we see: from the birth and death of stars and the movement and behavior of cells, to the evolutions in systems of governance and the progression of economic and financial models, all are subject to constant evolution and survival lest there be stagnation and eventual extinction.

As such, I submit that we are living in one of the most exciting, unsettling, fundamental, and critical of times, where we will witness paradigm shifts happen across the spectrum of human activity. The world of physics is on the verge of a major shift thanks to the mega-experiment being undertaken at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in Geneva. Socio-political change is happening across the globe, from the Americas, to Europe, to the Middle East: the world is coming to terms with the globalized, interconnected, and digital nature of the 21st century, and is only now beginning to find closure with the realities and consequences this unprecedented scenario brings.

The 2008 financial crisis loudly pronounced the number of holes we have in our international financial system. That part of our world came to the very precipice of collapse due to the outlandish nature of certain financial instruments which became popular ever since the passing of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley act. The story of the crisis itself is long-winded yet the important lesson is that no lesson was learned, and those individuals from those very firms responsible for rendering the Titan that is the world economy prostrate, are still doing exactly the same thing that was being done before. We are still dealing with the same tools of “wealth” creation, without the creation of any value that is tangible and measurable outside of a few digital readings.

In 2008 the derivatives market was calculated at having an estimated size of $600 trillion—more than 10 times the size of the combined global GDP of $55 trillion. Since then, the market has not been constrained, as logic would suggest that it must, considering the damage these exotic derivatives had on the global economy. Instead, there has been a dangerous proliferation of these products, given that the same institutions engaged in risky behavior were not punished; rather, they were rewarded with tax-payer funds in what was a blatant subsidization of moral hazard. They have not learned, and they won’t until the entire system experiences such an accumulation of anomalies and crises that a revolution of the financial paradigm becomes the only sensible way to keep the coherence of the free-market afloat.

A simple tenet of a free-market stipulates that risky behavior which results in failure is punished, and chances taken that end in success are rewarded. Since when has the playbook been rewritten to not punish failure? Have we become so engrossed with this gold-star-for-everyone mentality that we are now averse to facing reality when it comes a-knockin’? Surely the effects of not bailing out these institutions would have caused tectonic shifts across the world’s economy, but I can assure you that not only would the firms, but all of us have learned a very valuable lesson from the events. Next time around, and I can assure you that there will be a next time, we will have to think twice about what we do and what we allow our representatives to do. We can throw another patch-up job onto the mess and hope that the Band-Aid holds for a little while, or we make a genuine effort at treating the illness and shift towards the next logical paradigm, whatever that may be.

Regardless of the outcome, ideology, or belief, the figures show a clear unsustainability within the system. We are going to be faced with tough decisions, but we will also bear witness to a number of exciting developments across the board. This year will be one of great paradigm shifts, and will mark a decade of great evolution for humanity. We can embrace the necessity for changing and adapting to the realities of the present and the near future, or cling to the past and watch stagnation and decay grip our civilization by the throat. The status quo is comfortable, but not when it threatens to destroy everything we’ve worked for until now. Time to wake up. Time’s ticking.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Occupy Movement: The Rebellion Against Olympus

With the dawn of the 2008 banking crisis, which resulted in millions of people losing their jobs, homes, and savings, the blame quickly fell on the shoulders of ‘greedy bankers’. The titanic wave of foreclosures, and the near complete collapse of the global stock markets, led to extreme levels of anguish and anger. There were many to blame for the events that precipitated this crisis predominantly the US and foreign governments interventions into the free-market system, yet many of the governments weathered the storm as they emphasized corporate greed as the main cause of the crisis. The United States government which prompted banks especially through the government supported Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Programs to make outrageous loans, not to mention all the individuals who took out credit they could scarcely afford, were as much to blame for the crisis as those large banking institutions which made these same loans and traded in unreported derivatives because the US accounting laws did not require derivatives to be incorporated into SEC filings.

Out of the crisis two political forces came to fruition in response to the crisis and the outlandish government spending that followed in a misguided attempt to salvage the global economy. The first such force came in the form of the Tea Party Movement which originated as an anti-tax movement and called for a return to a time when the Government was less intrusive in the lives of its citizens. The direction the movement has recently taken is up for debate; however a few things can be definitively said of the Tea Party Activists: they have clearly defined objectives and an organized leadership, they are peaceful, and they obey the rule of law. Agree or not with their motives, yet they have emerged as a legitimate political force in US politics, unlike other movements which have sprouted since.

In recent months, following the Arab Spring and the protests in Europe due to increasingly severe austerity measures tied to the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis, the US had its own run-in with civil unrest which erupted in the form of the Occupy Wall Street movement. The rapid scaling of the effort, from the Brooklyn Bridge across the United States, was shocking to say the least, and showed that something was definitely wrong: the American Dream is fading.

As the Occupy Movement took to the streets of the United States I saw how truly disillusioned people in my country have become. They are so angry at the wealthy and the government that they took to protesting and taking up a quasi-common banner against the supposed “1%”. But their anger and passionate distaste for the high-income earners reflects a society and a rapidly evolving culture of entitlement. The American Dream is one where anyone can pull themselves up by their bootstraps; however, it has evolved into the dream of “‘I am entitled to this and that, and I don’t care if I did not earn it’”.

Let me put things into context, I am a 24 year old and have a graduate degree from an internationally recognized institution, and you have no idea the odyssey it has been for me after more than half a year to gain full-time employment. However one thing you will not see me doing is calling into question that those that have toiled to amass personal fortunes, should surrender more than they already do to the gigantic hydra that is the American Government. “We are the 99 percent”, is simply an excuse for a indolent sense of entitlement.

In the United States we did not used to feel that we were owed anything, but rather that by hard work you could make a better life for yourself and your own; we did however eventually decide to take a European-esque approach. Young people truly have become disillusioned about what it means to earn a living. It did not begin with my generation, but rather—at least—the one before. I remember stories from my parents about how in your first few years of work you needed to be prepared to work 80 to 100 hours a week. However, over the last few decades many—certainly not all—young people want to punch in their 40 hours a week and go off to enjoy the same lifestyle they had while living in their childhood homes. The result has been massive borrowing to live beyond one’s means and income. I know a number of people a few years older than myself that bought million dollar homes with under a hundred thousand dollars a year in income. Long story short—homes, cars, and credit cards all mortgaged to the hilt.

With the Kraken that is the burgeoning national debt rising in the minds of the people, an issue which quickly came to the forefront of US politics, there were many proposals for how to forestall the beast. The bravest of politicians suggested adjusting Medicare and other entitlement programs that are truly the source of this staggering debt, however many of them were cast aside. This was especially the case among “the Greatest Generation” who would be more accurately called the Greediest Generation. They receive far more in benefits than they ever paid in (including adjusting for inflation), and their lack of savings makes it impossible to restrict their entitlements. For them it has always been more, more, more. Our generation will pay for that, you can be sure of that.

The Occupy Movement in the wake of these events began protesting against those in the top 1%, claiming they had a duty to pay their fair share. If they had bothered to do a little research, they would know that in New York City the top 1% pay 43% of the taxes. Does that seem remotely fair to anyone, because if it does then that shows a rather dim understanding of economics. If that’s not convincing, then take a look and see what the top ten percent of the population of the city pays: 71%. Those individuals are not wealthy either, but rather to break into that top ten percent you only have to be making $105,000 a year in the most expensive city in the United States. These are not people cruising around in Bentleys and Ferraris, or living in lavish mansions. Occupy protesters consider this, but be careful though, because if you do, the foundation of your cause evaporates.

The most disturbing aspects of the Occupy movement came out in a few different ways. The first was before Black Friday when a few members of the movement in New York City were caught on tape saying they were going to throw Molotov cocktails through the windows of Macy’s department stores. That showed an escalation from mere accusations and infantile finger-pointing to actually putting lives in danger. The individuals who would have been in danger from the firebombs were not the ‘evil’ 1% but rather the average citizen trying to get bargains for the holiday season. If that isn’t the definition of nefarious, I’m not sure what is.

Another disturbing aspect of the movement is the sheer number of rapes that have been committed throughout various cities in Occupy camps. I am not implying that all the rapists were part of the movement, but the general trend has been that the rapes are not reported directly to law enforcement but rather handled internally by the camps. Even if you are anti-establishment, rape is not a crime that should be swept under the rug and ‘handled’ by the organizers. I wonder what they planned on doing, did they chastise the rapists? Have we reached the point where vigilante justice is acceptable? Telling the perpetrators to leave and never come back? No, those people should be dealt with by the rule of law and the justice system that enforces it.

One point that really hit home for me was a movement by Occupy protestors in Iowa. They camped outside Democrat offices and demanded that the US military budget be halved so that the money could be spent to create jobs. Now the main purpose of the government is to defend its people, and I would much rather see money spent on the military and the brave men and women who serve in it than people who contribute nothing to this country. Putting that aside, you have to consider that the US military has over 1.46 million active military personnel according to the US government in 2011, and an additional 1.45 million on reserve duty. Should we ever decide to halve the budget, would we not be in danger of losing at least a million of those jobs? According to the Occupy movement we need to add another million to the unemployment rosters to get the economy going. This has to be, without a doubt, one of the most outrageous and ridiculous claims in economic history. Not only would military personnel be affected, but also all private sector military contractors. Do not be confused thinking that I am referring to companies like Xe or Dyncorp, but more along the lines of Boeing, Northrup Grumman and others who provide essential services and equipment to our military, and otherwise, that employ hundreds of thousands if not millions of people. Overall, I do not believe that the protestors went as far as considering the consequences of their “one-liners-disguised-as-policy”, not in the least.

Finally, the march on the Port of Oakland—the fifth busiest container port in the United States. The Occupy Movement in that city was determined to shut down the port to disrupt activity and get a response from the elite. If that had come to pass, there would have been massive supply disruptions on the Western Seaboard, and those that suffered the most would not have been corporations but rather consumers that could not purchase certain goods because they were held up at the port. At the end of the day it was an ill-conceived strategy.

Ultimately the Occupy Movement has shown that it is not what the United States wants or needs. The economic and fiscal policies that are projected are, at best, poorly researched, and at worst an attempt to disrupt the capitalist system in favor of one similar to that of the despot Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. As US citizens we may in many ways be divided politically, but we must unite against the foes of our constitution and our free-market capitalist system for a better future. In essence: end the Occupy movement.

The Will of Fire

We are the children of light, the embodiment of life everlasting on the plateau that is our home: our humble planet, Earth. Our mortal deeds have and will continue to echo throughout eternity, testaments of what we are capable of, what we can accomplish, what we can essentially become.


From the heights of Mount Olympus, fire was taken from the Gods and given to humankind, its warmth and might representing its elemental will, a tool which granted us the strength to survive and endure, to struggle and subdue death through both winter and foe alike. Fire granted us a clearer chance over life and it accelerated the development of our species. Through the might of one of nature's most fickle elements, we witnessed our kind crawl from the caves, shape and mold bronze, iron, and steel, and consequentially conquered the four corners of the world.


The will of fire entangled with our spirits has allowed us time and again to challenge our destiny and shape our fate. We have built towers of metal which scrape the skies, we have walked amongst the stars and played golf on the barren landscapes of the Moon, we have smashed elementary particles with such force that the very creation of the Universe can be glimpsed if only for a moment, we continue to make strides in curbing illness and soon, we will treat age as nothing more than a degenerative disease; we are all this, and so much more.


Through the flick of finger, Generals and Emperors, Presidents and Tyrants, Heroes and Villains, have laid bare the fruits of the Earth, liberating—or oppressing—a history’s worth of individuals. Where once we heard the clash of steel and sinew in the battlefield, we now tremble over the unadulterated power of the atom—the ultimate weapon of judgment, the destroyer of worlds. From a single spark we have challenged the very fabric of matter and existence, being able to convert a field of sand, into a crystalline bowl of glass. From a single flame we have looked at raw ingredients and said, I can do whatever I can imagine with this—I will shape the Universe itself to serve my needs.


With such a legacy ordained to us, with such power embedded within us, many sit around by the fire’s warmth, whining on the vicissitudes of life and the hardships of existence. Some however, have no need to be physically facing the fire to be reminded of its power, they carry it ablaze within their hearts, using it to batter through any obstacles that stand in their way, through any challenges that may emerge. Whomsoever may manage to entangle their spirits with the will of the power brought down from the heavens by Prometheus, are the ones who raise Atlantis to its heights, are the ones who bring human civilization to bear. Lo and behold: the law of man stands as a reflection of the law of nature and its God.


Those laws know many permutations, yet their fundamentals are simple: survival through power; might through wisdom; faith through will. Zeus bided his time to strike against the Titans, and so did the children of the Gods take their time to end the reign of Olympus. The cycle is ongoing, the paradigm always shifting, from father to son, through mother to daughter. It was a very particular set of humans who displaced the Gods from their realm, and they became those paragons of legend that inspired so many to strive for more. With each rung of the ladder, a new reality emerges, and the truth of the matter is that those who make this reality possible are the ones who fight, who struggle, who challenge the norms and break the pattern, who create new forms of wealth and enterprise, who consistently seek the path of knowledge to cross new frontiers, these are the individuals responsible for bringing humanity to where it is, with the vast majority suckling at the fruits of their labor, doing little to show gratitude, doing even less to escalate themselves to the levels of potential demonstrated by their “peers”.


Nowadays we see a popular movement rising which seems to have lost sight of what is truly important. The 99% movement clamoring around a banner of blind, in fact senseless hatred towards the top 1% richest individuals in this planet, seem to have found comfort in laying blame for all their woes on that top-most economic segment of society. Granted, there are elements to how the market works that should be revised and reformed, for a true representation of capitalism beguiles and abhors favoritism, cronyism, partisanship, and corruption. A true free market punishes mistakes and rewards cautious entrepreneurship; in a true market, there are no bail-outs. The frustration of the 99% is understandable, yet their methods, their message, their intentions, and their beliefs are completely misguided. Mathematically speaking it is impossible for everyone to be a part of the 1%, however, and this is the crux of the matter, to not strive to become the incarnation of the potential embedded within each individual, is, well, disgusting. To not strive to shift the paradigm through personal and collective achievements, be they of a financial, scientific, social, or artistic sort is deplorable. Rather than protesting and defiling public domains, the so called Occupiers should instead be Liberators, perhaps even Heroes. Their actions show the complete opposite of what is needed to enact any real change. No scientific mind has ever revolutionized his field by protesting his predecessors, but rather labored for hours on end to make his theories triumph over all others. No artist has ever contributed to our conception of beauty by sitting in a tent as the seasons go by: they picked up the guitar or brush or pen and got to crafting. No statesman defeated tyrants or uplifted nations through complaining, no general motivated his troops through grumbling, no tycoon amassed his wealth through whining, and no revolutionary ever accomplished a single deed without rallying and acting.


To be a 1% is not merely to have that much more than everyone else, but it is the rather sad depiction that only a few have the nerve, the fire, the will and want to do what needs be done in order to enact some modicum or change. While the 99% talk, the 1% do. While the 99% complain, the 1% transform. While the 99% demonize, the 1% prophetize. While the 99% occupy, the 1% elevate.


Whether you agree or not, I am willing to debate, just make your case clearly and back it up with evidence. Don't ever resort to mere one-liners and name-calling, that is just lazy. Make this forum what it should be, make your case and if I respond it is because I find the comment worthy of argument.


Welcome everyone to Atlantis.